Many mainstream political pundits believe that November’s election was the stake in the heart for GOP business as usual. Up till now, the Republican marriage between religious right and the wealthiest business interests (or as Krugman has called it, ‘the preachers and the plutocrats’) has been able to hold its own against the left’s ever growing big-tent. But now, many GOP headliners have begun to acknowledge that in order for the party to remain competitive nationally in the years to come, both branding and policy must change.
Yet while some are ready to think about what changes need to be made, a large portion of the party still believes that the best course of action is sticking to its guns (literally) and holding steady. These two factions will soon be locked in an epic battle for the soul of the party. But those in favor of change may be fighting an uphill battle. Why?
The infamous ‘dead cat bounce.’ According to Wikipedia:
In finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock. Derived from the idea that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”, the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline.
Applied in this instance, the bounce event for the dead cat GOP will occur in a little less than two years, aka, the 2014 mid-term elections. If the Republican party is capable of doing one thing, it’s getting out the vote in off-year elections. Young people and minorities just don’t vote in the numbers necessary for Democrats to hold the numbers they do in prime year elections.
Unfortunately for the GOP establishment, the dead cat bounce could be a false signal for many that the status quo is still enough to win the day, which could potentially set the table for another Karl Rove meltdown on election night 2016.
It’s going to be an interesting two to four years for Republicans. Let’s see if this cat has still got some life in it.